Can Twitter Analytics Predict a Trump v. Clinton Winner?

Posted on July 19, 2016 by

Trump Twitter analyticsIf you’re a social media trend watcher or a political junkie, you can’t help but pay attention to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Twitter this year!

Using the free Twitter Analytics Report Card from Agorapulse, let’s take a quick look at the two U.S. presidential candidates setting Twitter on fire right now.

trump on twitter

In the Red Corner: Donald Trump @RealDonaldTrump

  • Followers: 9.8 million
  • Tweets: 268 in the past 30 days

As Donald Trump has discovered, social media gives candidates the opportunity to speak directly to the nation by connecting with the average voter in a language they understand and appreciate. That is why Trump insists on writing all his tweets himself and why he has resonated with so many people.  

And when I mean “resonated,” I mean reacting on Twitter. Although he has published fewer posts this month than Hillary Clinton, he has generated over three times the amount of retweets and likes per tweet than his Democratic rival. (Check the “Publishing Quality” column on the Twitter Analytics Report Card grid above for details.)

Here’s one of his most recent “resonating” tweets:

As I write this article, this Trump tweet has generated nearly 26,000 likes and over 8,900 retweets. For the 9.8 million people following the Trump on Twitter, this is exactly the show they came to see.

Clearly, Trump is winning when it comes to engagement on Twitter. 

trump on twitter

In the Blue Corner: Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton

  • Followers: 7.4 million
  • Tweets: 391 in the past 30 days

Hillary’s social media campaign appears to have caught on to Trump’s tactics. At the very least, they’ve realized that Trump on Twitter is making him more popular. That probably explains why Mrs. Clinton recently took a break from her professional, deliberately savvy tweets and decided to troll the Donald.

Hillary responded not in her usual focus-tested tone, but with…

To say that Hillary’s response went viral would be an understatement. It was liked over 634,000 times and retweeted over 482,000 times. This clearly shows that Hillary knows how to troll, and appears to be pretty good at it!

Nasty barbs aside, she seems to be falling short in terms of everyday engagement on Twitter. Looking at the “Audience Quality” column on the Twitter Analytics Report Card, fewer than half of her followers have interacted with her tweets over the past thirty days. When you compare that to Trump on Twitter rallying more than 80 percent of his followers, you realize that she has more to do on this platform.

So Does a Winning Trump on Twitter mean a Winning Trump in the White House?

The idea that social media could decide the 2016 election has been talked about since the campaign began. While social media existed in the 2012 debate, the past four years have seen exponential growth in terms of engagement and capability. If 2008 was the “Facebook election,” 2016 could very well become the “Twitter election.”

As the election draws nearer, both candidates will up their Twitter campaigns to win over the hearts and minds of voters. In the era of declining television viewership, social media has become the go-to method of engaging your audience and influencing change. Although a lot can happen over the next few months, one thing remains crystal clear: Both candidates will be relying on Twitter to convey their campaign message. 

Want to  keep better track of how Clinton and Trump are doing on Twitter?

Then give Agorapulse’s free Twitter Analytics Report Card a try. Or if you prefer, compare your own Twitter activity against your most fierce rival!

Charli Day is a British writer and social media manager specializing in dynamic branding, campaign strategy and content engagement. Responsible for a number of high profile brands and with 500+ articles published, her success lies within her originality and hands on experience of the digital marketing world. Charli lives by the Mediterranean and loves Starbucks, popcorn flavoured jellybeans and writing poetry.